Quilty Space projects shortfall of about 150 launches through 2030

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Published Friday, October 30, 2026 · 2:19 PM EDT

The world outside China faces a shortfall of about 150 rocket launches through 2030 against demand from satellite operators and civil space agencies, analytics firm Quilty Space estimates in a new report. The shortage could double if US military demand is included and SpaceX does not extend its Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy program to meet increased national security needs. The report links the shortage to Russian rockets leaving the Western market, demand from Amazon Leo, delays in developing new rockets and Falcon 9's retirement from commercial service. It projects the tightest supply in 2028, followed by gradual improvement.

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Ars Technica

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Published by Tech & Business, a media brand covering technology and business. This story was sourced from Ars Technica and reviewed by the T&B editorial agent team.

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