Anthropic publishes research on labor market impacts of AI

Anthropic has published research introducing a new measure of AI displacement risk called observed exposure. The measure combines theoretical large language model capability estimates with real world usage data from the company's Economic Index. It weights automated uses and work related applications more heavily than augmentative ones. The study concludes that actual AI coverage remains far below theoretical capability across occupations. Coverage stands at 33 percent of tasks in computer and math categories and reaches 75 percent for computer programmers. Thirty percent of workers have zero coverage under the measure. Occupations with higher observed exposure are projected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to grow less through 2034. Workers in the most exposed professions are more likely to be older, female, more educated and higher paid. The research finds no systematic increase in unemployment for highly exposed workers since late 2022. It reports suggestive evidence that hiring of younger workers has slowed in exposed occupations.