MIT framework sets 10-parameter economic test for commercial fusion plants

MIT professors Dennis Whyte and Andrew W. Lo, with collaborators, propose a framework for judging when fusion power plants can be commercially viable. The open-access paper, "Criteria for the economic viability of fusion power plants," appears in the Journal of Fusion Energy. The method pairs the physical inputs needed to sustain controlled fusion with the capital costs of plants that must compete in energy markets. Whyte, a professor of nuclear science and engineering at MIT, said the aim is a clear economic picture for any fusion plant design. Co-author Lo, a professor of finance at the MIT Sloan School of Management, said complex scientific and engineering requirements must be reduced to economic consequences if the field is to secure funding. The framework uses 10 parameters. Some cover energy consumed and produced; most cover engineering and economics such as construction cost, power density, conversion efficiency, component durability, and market returns. It draws inspiration from the Lawson Criterion, which defines plasma conditions for net energy gain. Whyte frames the new work as an economic Q: the ratio of capital gained to capital spent. As with plasma Q, economic Q must exceed 1 for basic viability. The criteria are agnostic to fusion concept and do not depend on reactor size; inputs can be scaled to a given project or power output. Authors include Rachel Bielajew, Maria Hancock, Riley Moeykens, and Guinevere Shaw, with ties to MIT's Plasma Science and Fusion Center and Rutherford Energy Ventures. Whyte co-founded Commonwealth Fusion Systems, an MIT spinoff. Whyte and Lo also co-founded Rutherford Energy Ventures, which is working with the U.S. Department of Energy's Oak Ridge National Laboratory on a fusion research consortium. MIT News notes Commonwealth Fusion Systems recently secured a new billion-dollar funding round and aims to open its first working plant in Virginia in the 2030s. Lo said economic viability is something the field can begin assessing now.