Measuring US workers' capacity to adapt to AI-driven job displacement

New research pairs estimates of occupational exposure to artificial intelligence with measures of workers' adaptive capacity to assess who may be best positioned to handle potential job displacement. The analysis, detailed in a National Bureau of Economic Research paper Of the 37.1 million U.S. workers in the top quartile of occupational AI exposure, 26.5 million also have above-median adaptive capacity. The analysis identifies 6.1 million workers, or 4.2 percent of the sample workforce, who face both high exposure and low adaptive capacity. These workers are concentrated in clerical and administrative roles, with about 86 percent women according to Lightcast data. The affected workers are geographically concentrated in smaller metropolitan areas, including university towns and midsized markets in the Mountain West and Midwest. The study combines six primary datasets to build a composite measure of adaptive capacity The approach aims to help policymakers better target resources