Studying "Fault" In Robotaxi Crashes; Tesla's Not Getting Hit Enough

An analysis of National Highway Traffic Safety Administration crash data estimates that Waymo robotaxis were at fault in about 12% of roughly 1,000 reported incidents from June 2025 to June 2026, the author said. The review used a large language model to assess fault across the database, with human sampling confirming the results were sufficient for high-level patterns. The data shows Waymo vehicles were frequently rear-ended while stopped, a pattern the author said indicates high mileage operation. Tesla vehicles showed a similar pattern of being hit while stopped, but the author said it was not happening enough, which suggests lower mileage than implied. Zoox reported 53 crashes with only three assessed as at-fault, though the author noted this may reflect the company's own crash narratives. AVRide recorded over 50 crashes with roughly 20% fault while operating with safety drivers. The author argued that counting total crashes without fault analysis understates the safety advantage of autonomous systems. Waymo has driven over 220 million miles with two involved fatalities, neither of which the analysis found were caused by the Waymo vehicle. The author recommended independent parties review the detailed 3D recordings from incidents to produce more objective fault estimates.